A Thinking Reed

"Man is but a reed, the most feeble thing in nature, but he is a thinking reed" – Blaise Pascal

Chuck Hagel and the need for a “serious” antiwar candidate

The latest news still has Nebraska Senator Chuck Hagel delaying his decision on the possibility of a presidential bid.

While it’s true that Hagel isn’t strictly anti-war or non-interventionist (and, indeed, has been a big supporter of the Bush administration on most issues), his relatively critical voice would be welcome in the primary debates, especially when the top three GOP contenders dissent little, if at all, on the Administration’s foreign policy (John McCain partly excepted, who is, if anything, further to the right than Bush). And unlike, say, Ron Paul, the quixotic libertarian congressman from Texas, a Hagel candidacy couldn’t be easily dismissed.

Moreover, the Democratic field hasn’t exactly distinguished itself with antiwar zeal, with Hillary Clinton, John Edwards, and Barack Obama all making threatening sounds about Iran and equivocating on Iraq (NM governor Bill Richardson and, of course, Dennis Kucinich are exceptions to this trend, and, perhaps not coincidentally, polling in the single digits).

The fact is, it still seems to be conventional wisdom that bellicosity equals “seriousness” about foreign affairs, which is the sin qua non of having a snowball’s chance of getting elected. Any suggestion, say, that the idea of a global, generations-spanning “war on terrorism” and its attendant consequences for things like civil liberties and the treatment of prisoners might be an overreaction to a serious, but not existential threat has thus far been a one-way ticket to political irrelevance.

That’s why having an indisputably “serious” candidate like Chuck Hagel in the field, someone who takes a more moderate line, could serve to move the debate in a more reasonable direction.

7 responses to “Chuck Hagel and the need for a “serious” antiwar candidate”

  1. Good analysis. I think Hagel could do a lot to shake up a Republican field where the top three candidates have positions on Iraq that are politically calculated to say the least.

  2. McCain’s position is hardly “calculated.” His combination of anti-torture lite plus pro-surge appears to be poll and fund-raising-wise a complete dud. The only thing that seems to explain is that he believes it.

    Now Romney on the other hand . . . .

  3. Hi.

    You wrote,

    “Moreover, the Democratic field hasn’t exactly distinguished itself with antiwar zeal, with Hillary Clinton, John Edwards, and Barack Obama all making threatening sounds about Iran and equivocating on Iraq (NM governor Bill Richardson and, of course, Dennis Kucinich are exceptions to this trend, and, perhaps not coincidentally, polling in the single digits).”

    Am I reading that parenthetical remark correctly? You think being anti-war results in low poll numbers?

    I would agree if I thought you would site as the underlying reasons for this the facts

    (a) that these candidates have been rejected by the money men and party powers (Kucinch over more than one presidential campaign),

    (b) that they have been brushed off as not serious by the media (Kucinich ditto), and

    (c) that Americans responding to polls, like Americans in the voting booth, are determined to throw their support only to “somebody who can win,” so long as he’s at worst a “lesser evil,” even when it means supporting someone whose position they oppose rather than someone whose position they share.

    Or did you mean they are polling poorly because Americans are actually more pro-war than John Paul or Dennis Kucinich, specifically regarding Iran, and perhaps also Iraq?

    Your post began by pointing out that even those who are anti-war wrt Iraq and maybe also Iran are not, generally, full-bore non-interventionists of the John Paul type (and I am not sure Dennis K is really in that same corner, even on military intervention, and leaving out of account foreign aid or humanitarian intervention that he would endorse and JP would oppose). And that surely is true.

    Did you mean to say or suggest that Americans, given a chance, would prefer American military globalism to such non-interventionism?

    Given a choice, they would reject a general drawdown of US forces and deployments, pulling all the troops and fleets back to the Western hemisphere, north of the equator and abandoning NATO and other alliances left over from the Cold War?

    They might, if frightened enough. But I think it would be close.

    The idea of a peace dividend and general US withdrawal from its Cold War alliances was quite popular in the immediate aftermath of the fall of the Soviet, Communist Empire. I think it very likely still is.

  4. I think there’s a chicken-and-egg problem here: candidates like Kucinich are deemed “unserious” by the press on account of their non-mainstream (among politicos) views which, naturally, leads the press to give them less coverage, which increases the impression that they’re not serious…

    In essence, what I think is this: the elites – politicians, the press, corporations, big money – are, for a variety of reasons, far more interventionist generally than the run of the mill American. Thus they’re gatekeepers of who counts as “serious.” And, while I think there’s a residual anti-interventionism among us commoners (wasn’t there recently a poll that said that 2/3 of the American people oppose wars for democracy-promotion?), the relentless elite propaganda is bound to have an effect over time. (viz. the Iraq war)

  5. […] all assumes that no other serious contenders (Hagel, Gore) jump in to complicate matters. […]

  6. […] 17th, 2007 by Lee Ross Douthat makes a point not unlike the point I made here. Much as I enjoy Ron Paul’s red-meat isolationism, the chances that such a view will actuall […]

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