A Thinking Reed

"Man is but a reed, the most feeble thing in nature, but he is a thinking reed" – Blaise Pascal

Threat assessment

Andrew Bacevich has a slightly different version of his “Islamic Way of War” article in the newest American Conservative. This merits being highlighted:

What are the implications of this new Islamic Way of War? While substantial, they fall well short of being apocalyptic. As Gen. Peter Pace, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, has correctly—if perhaps a trifle defensively—observed, “Our enemy knows they cannot defeat us in battle.” Neither the Muslim world nor certainly the Arab world poses what some like to refer to as “an existential threat” to the United States. Despite overheated claims that the so-called Islamic fascists pose a danger greater than Hitler ever did, the United States is not going to be overrun, even should the forces of al-Qaeda, Hamas, Hezbollah, Iraqi insurgents, and Shi’ite militias along with Syria and Iran all combine into a unified anti-Crusader coalition. Although Israelis for historical reasons are inclined to believe otherwise, the proximate threat to Israel itself is only marginally greater. Although neither Israel nor the United States can guarantee its citizens “perfect security”—what nation can?—both enjoy ample capabilities for self-defense.

What the Islamic Way of War does mean to both Israel and to the United States is this: the Arabs now possess—and know that they possess—the capacity to deny us victory, especially in any altercation that occurs on their own turf and among their own people. To put it another way, neither Israel nor the United States today possesses anything like the military muscle needed to impose its will on the various governments, nation-states, factions, and political movements that comprise our list of enemies. For politicians in Jerusalem or Washington to persist in pretending otherwise is the sheerest folly.

It’s time for Americans to recognize that the enterprise that some neoconservatives refer to as World War IV is unwinnable in a strictly military sense. Indeed, it’s past time to re-examine the post-Cold War assumption that military power provides the preferred antidote to any and all complaints that we have with the world beyond our borders.

In the Middle East and more broadly in our relations with the Islamic world, we face difficult and dangerous problems, more than a few of them problems to which we ourselves have contributed. Those problems will become more daunting still, for us and for Israel, should a nation like Iran succeed in acquiring nuclear weapons. But as events in Iraq and now in southern Lebanon make clear, reliance on the sword alone will not provide a solution to those problems. We must be strong and we must be vigilant. But we also need to be smart, and getting smart means ending our infatuation with war and rediscovering the possibilities of politics.

The mid-20th century anti-war journalist Garret Garrett once referred to American foreign policy as a “complex of fear and vaunting.” That is, alternately cowering in fear of a supposedly omnipotent foe and blustering about our own power to kick his ass. I think we’ve seen a fair amount of this in the last five years. You see this in the occassional call for desperate and extreme measures – also known as war crimes – as the only way to forestall the imminent victory of the “Islamofascists.” Only if the enemy is on the verge of wiping us out would such measures seem at all reasonable to most people. So the rhetoric describing the threat posed is ratcheted up to “existential.” A more sober evaluation of the threat, on the other hand, would demand a far differnt set of responses.

One response to “Threat assessment”

  1. Clearly we kicked Saddam’s ass thoroughly. It must have been strategically important to keep ourselves in harm’s way rather than just leaving after the military action was completed. There must be political value in ensuring the continued presence of an external threat to our security. I read where a lot of Israelis were kind of relieved to be fighting a “real war” again, instead of this niggling sense of persecuting the Palestinians inside the Israeli borders.

    After Germany and Japan surrendered, to my knowledge they didn’t sustain any kind of insurgency against the Allied occupying forces. Maybe conquerors who in turn are conquered are prepared to acknowledge not just military defeat but the overthrow of their cultural self-image. If you’re already oppressed Vietnamese or Iraqis or Palestinians, losing a war doesn’t really change your status or your self-image. So you just keep going as if nothing significant happened.

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